The use of Scenario planning and how it could've helped Nokia survive the disruptive innovation of Android and iPhone Products

 

CS 875 Individual Project 6

Steven C. Wong

Colorado Technical University

This document will discuss how scenario planning is useful in predicting disruptive innovations and maintaining a company’s success. The Nokia phone company is an example of a company that failed to adopt scenario planning and failed using traditional strategies in the market place. 

This document’s author will discuss how scenario type planning supports planning and innovation for change. Then the author will discuss what forces are involved, and what influences do they make on how a company or organization is run. An appropriate model, diagram or illustration will be applied in this document to show the forces of scenario planning in the smartphone and information technology market. The author’s thoughts will then be summarized about how the author will use scenario planning for future innovation efforts. The author will conclude this document by taking into consideration the concept of if the scenario plan will account for social impact or change.

When writing this document the researcher looked up the rise and fall of Nokia in the smartphone industry as a prime example of how a company did not conduct proper scenario type planning and only relied on standard or traditional forecasting. The disruptive innovations of the year 2007 were Apple’s iOS and iPhone and the Linux Based Android smartphones that came into existence which was a serious threat to Nokia’s future. Nokia failed to predict the existence of a higher functioning more competitive cell phone brand which could easily be avoided using scenario planning. Traditional planning is the style Nokia used to manage its product. Traditional planning is slow to change, and has no time to address a customer’s opinion or concern. Another drawback of using traditional planning which brought about the downfall of the cellular phone company Nokia is that individual subcontractors were manipulating the development process and there was no sense of central authority. 

Other issues Nokia faced with this type of strategy that failed are lack of time management, no intuitiveness, no coordination with employees, local optimization, the positive change process is not easy to implement, and there were certain risks and development strategies using standard planning techniques. Scenario planning supports planning and innovation for change because this technique views a variety of different upcoming scenarios and takes into consideration the variety of estimations and events. These scenarios using the scenario planning strategy are not forecasts but different points of view on how the days to come unravel. This technique is very useful because it was originally developed for military planning and is later adopted by companies around the world because it is an advantage to use scenario planning in unpredictable, or fast changing work settings. 

Scenario planning permits companies and government agencies to examine plans against the possibility of future status changes, by comprehending the influences of decisions made in a short period of time, and increasing employee conditioning for unpredictable scenarios. “Essentially, scenario planning shifts the focus from trying to predict the future to understanding the dynamics that will shape it” (SAP, 2025). Scenario planning is necessary for success because it assists companies to discover uncertainties by imagining a variety of outcomes and planning a strategy to win on the market after viewing or imagining these scenarios. This type of planning makes it easy to make informed decisions, and maintain long-term sustainability. 

Forces involved with scenario planning can be the laws, customers, and changing technology environment. The government is constantly making new laws that regulate our behavior on computers and smartphones which can affect the capabilities of new phones when in the product development stage. Customers may demand companies like Nokia to stay competitive with businesses like Apple because of their loyalty and the fact that they may want a specific feature to help them perform a task while at home or at work. Technological innovations are constantly happening, and artificial intelligence may be an innovation that can revolutionize how we use devices which is a disruptive innovation because it forces companies in the industry to stay competitive. 

Figure 1. The Diagram above shows the forces involved with scenario planning and what impacts they have on decision making within a company or organization like Apple or Nokia. 

Scenario planning is a useful way of thinking for future innovation initiatives because it assists companies in predicting and getting ready for a range of possible outcomes, besides depending on a single estimation or prediction using standard planning procedures. Scenario planning identifies important uncertainties for a company or organization. This planning type identifies major elements that could influence the company’s innovation initiative but are not easy to guess with predictable settings. Key uncertainties include technological improvement to a product, trends in customer behavior, changes in the economy, or new laws. Using these uncertain possibilities, companies develop a set of scenarios, with a different variety of possible future environments. These scenarios are not forecasts, but a highly possible future that could happen. When investigating implications to new advancements a company leader might ask the following questions when using scenario planning : “What new opportunities might open up in the days to come?”, “What issues or drawbacks can the company get exposed to?”, “How can a company adapt with the existing innovation plans?”

It is important for a company to develop robust strategies that go across a wide array of future outcomes. These strategies might include investing in portfolios of research endeavours that are in correlation to a variety of scenarios. Developing elasticity into the company’s innovation protocol so that the employees can adapt to changing conditions is important. It is also imperative to find the warning signs that can show which scenario is becoming a reality. Continuous monitoring of market trends for adaptation purposes is a scenario planning strategy because it is not a one time application of the concept. A company needs round the clock surveillance of the environment for symptoms of which a new scenario is revealing a new trend and evolving to stay with the innovation plan is necessary according to the results. 

Scenario planning should account for the social influence of change. This is necessary for responsible and feasible strategies. When considering social influence, planning can predict disruptive innovations and develop strategies to reduce their negative impact on their business. A social influence evaluation is useful in this situation because it supports equity,  and makes sure that the advantages and drawbacks are distributed evenly and that weaker groups of people are not treated unfairly. 

References

Bohmann, J., & Stephan, A. (2014). *Income inequality and subjective well-being: The role of relative income concerns*. (No. 794346243). Kiel Working Paper No. 1947. Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101414/1/794346243.pdf

Figure 1. (2022, March 18). Scenario planning. MSP Guide. https://mspguide.org/2022/03/18/scenario-planning/

SAP. (n.d.). *What is scenario planning?*. Retrieved from https://www.sap.com/products/financial-management/what-is-scenario-planning.html

WADIC. (n.d.). *Traditional project management: Advantages & disadvantages*. Retrieved from https://wadic.net/traditional-project-management-advantages-disadvantages/

A response to the article Affectibility in education CS 875 Steven Wong

  Hello professor and class. I read the article very carefully and I think the socio-technical issues are the integration of the technology of learning laptops to people who are in grammar school and at the beginning stages of the learning process. There are a lot of other issues like how to develop some kind of context where it would make sense for this technology to be used even if the schools are using a traditional paper, pen, raised hand or brick and mortar  educational setup. there were technical issues like using the internet in countries that do not use information technology as much as the United States of America. The plan was to use technology to boost the confidence and self esteem of students to motivate them to learn better and to be excited about school and not view getting an education as a chore. One child student named Victor was mentioned and this person learned that the meaning of his name meant "Victorious One' or "Winner" and it gave him the motivation and confidence to read and learn more things using technology to bridge the literacy gap among all groups of people.

    In the paper the researcher or author proved that computers can be used in social events like when the students used laptops in a Brazilian independence day celebration. This act showed how people can socialize and attend events while using technology to continue their education without missing out on socializing with others in their culture. The laptops were applied to 4 cases with students which were: Case 1 : transforming homework assignments, Case 2 : integrating the school in interdisciplinary activities, Case 3: using XO laptops inside and outside school walls, and Case 4: student volunteers. This article mentioned a diagram called the semiotic onion. The diagram is a layered situation that has an informal outer layer, a formal inner layer and a technical core. In the informal outer layer, most caregivers would not be able to use the laptop and engage in their child's events, and educators are not feeling comfortable with a technological solutions they do not know a lot about. In the same diagram on the inner formal layer of the semiotic onion, it is noted that not all child students were permitted to take laptops back to their residence due to fear or theft from educators, and caregivers. Some educators were concerned that interdisciplinary events would not work with the use of laptops in classrooms. In the technical case of the security onion diagram, there are difficulties regarding response time when engaging in classroom activities on laptops, along with connecting to the internet not being available all the time when using the laptop, the grading system being very different from the traditional teaching set up is another issue on the socio-technical concern. Another issue for laptops is present due to not enough outlets to plug in to the wall to keep the laptops charged in a classroom setting. 

 

References:

Hayashi, E.S., & Baranauskeis, M.C. (2013). Affect ability in educational technologies: A socio-technical perspective for design.     Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 16(1), 57-68

CS875 IP 4

 

Unit 4 Individual Project

Colorado Technical University

Steven C. Wong

2/2/2025

This document will discuss two inventions or ideas that came from an error or an accident. The author will discuss the discovery of the toy “Slinky” and the antibiotic medication penicillin. 

Individual Project 4

Game changing ideas are frequently seen as a purposeful and methodological protocol, created by thoughtful strategies and tedious assessments of new discoveries. However, the past is riddled with instances of breakthrough finds and ideas that came up not from a calculated model, but from spontaneous mistakes and accidental detections. This document discusses two examples, the accidental discovery of penicillin and the innovative toy named the “Slinky”. These inventions or ideas seem to be stressed over and made in a lab, underscore the important duty of serendipity in optimizing scientific research and a product's creation, research, and initiative to take on the unexpected. In continuation, the document assesses the forces that advanced these innovations from mere accidents to groundbreaking innovations. 

The description of scientific progression frequently focuses and stresses the force of improvised research and asking systematic questions. However with this discussion on spontaneous ideas it functions with a parallel story of success and the idea of serendipitous inventions and ideas, where the possibility of opportunities and unexpected results have made the chance or opportunity for game changing advancements. These “unintentional” innovations are from accidents, they frequently show the collection of present information, expert monitoring, and an open mind with the possibility of identifying the relevance of the unknown.  This paper’s author goes in depth into two inspirational instances of spontaneous or accidental inventions or ideas: the accidental find of penicillin and the invention of the “slinky”. Through the assessment of the environment and background of these innovations, the scientific community can attain a greater love for the duty of opportunity in the new concept and the forces that make it easy for the evolution of accidental discoveries and ideas into meaningful innovations. 

The Game Changing Fungus: Penicillin

In 1928, Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin. This discovery is a high quality example of spontaneous innovation in the scientific community. Fleming is a Scottish bacteriologist and scientist. Fleming was researching the staphylococcus bacteria when he discovered or observed a strange mold that infested one of the petri dishes he was observing. Fleming decided not to discard the mold contaminated culture in his petri dish. 

Fleming, known for his meticulous surveillance skills, looked into the issue further. He noticed the section around the mold was transparent of bacterial reproduction, realizing that the mold contained properties that kill germs or bacteria. Penicillium notatum, a type of mold, is the world’s first antibiotic. Fleming’s bright idea and intellect is not only a critical discovery but also in his perseverance in researching the innovation. He identified the possibility of the accidental discovery to evolve the way we and hospitals treat infections. Despite the issues pointing out and purifying the compounds in the petri dish. The forces that assisted Fleming’s research had his own scientific wonder, the present body of understanding about the increased demand for the useful treatments for infections related to bacteria. 

Despite his discoveries, it was the combined research of Howard Florey, Ernst Chain, and Norman Heatley at Oxford University in the 20th century that seriously promoted the medicinal possibility of penicillin. Their research to purify and develop penicillin revolutionized the medical industry and changed penicillin from a laboratory oddity into a life saving medication, and brought in a new antibiotic era. 

The Discovery of the “Slinky”: The Accidental Fun Spring

The penicillin background and story underscores serendipity, and spontaneous accidental innovation, the unintentional discovery of the “slinky” shows the duty of chance in developing new products. Richard James, an engineer in the navy discovered the “slinky” in 1943. He was researching design springs to help make sensitive equipment more stable on naval vessels. While working on the spring, he spontaneously dropped one of the springs on the ground at work. The spring did not simply fall to the ground, but the spring started to “walk” end-over-end getting Mister James’s undivided attention. He was so enthused about the spring’s strange moves that he thought it would make a great children’s toy. 

With the assistance of his spouse Betty Jones who named the toy “slinky”, changed the accidental discovery into a successful toy on the market. The simplicity and exciting motion caught on quickly in the world market with that toy, and it became a cultural phenomena in a short period of time. The forces that assisted the success of the spring toy included the toy market after World War II, smart selling strategies, and the obvious appeal of the toy’s custom attributes. The “slinky” success story displays that even simple mistakes can show new ideas with relevant marketable possibilities.

Discussion

The accidental innovation stories of penicillin and the “slinky”, while completely different in uses and discoveries, share a common idea, both inventions sprouted from unexpected discoveries. These instances demonstrate that these innovations are not always the outcome of focused strategies, it can be developed from opportunities and the possibility to identify the relevance of the unknown and unintentional breakthroughs in life. The people involved in these discoveries have not only the professional knowledge in their field of study but an important concept of having an open mind and an ability to discover the unknown. 

The achievement of these accidental breakthroughs also highlights the significance of supporting backgrounds that adopt wonder, in conjunction with the assistance of their coworkers, and participant families, more important in evolving these opportunistic occurrences into game changing inventions. Furthermore, the more social and innovative perspectives make it an important duty in shaping the influence of these inventions. The need for useful antibiotic medications in the 20th century and post World War II business market helped to the fast creation and wide spread fostering of penicillin and the “Slinky”.

Conclusion:

Accidental inventions and discoveries have a vital duty in the process of serendipity. The accidental discoveries of penicillin and the “slinky” show a strong reminder that mistakes and accidents can be priceless sources of positive change.  By adopting settings that promote observations, investigations, and the initiative to take on the unexpected, we can develop a situation of continued opportunities of serendipitous inventions that can change the future of the scientific community, technology, and today’s society. These “accidental” innovations are not failures, they are frequently the outcomes of expert monitoring, present information, and a open mind with the ability of identifying the possibility of the unknown. 

This document lists two examples of spontaneous inventions and ideas: the accidental discovery of penicillin and the innovative toy named the "Slinky." These inventions highlight the importance of serendipity in optimizing scientific research and a product's creation, research, and initiative to take on the unexpected. The accidental discovery of penicillin, made by Scottish bacteriologist Alexander Fleming in 1928, was a critical discovery that evolved the way we treat infections. The forces that assisted Fleming's research included his own scientific wonder and the increasing demand for useful antibiotic treatments.

The invention of the "Slinky" in 1943 by Richard James, an engineer in the navy, demonstrated the duty of chance in developing new products. James accidentally dropped a spring on the ground at work, which he thought would make a great children's toy. With the assistance of his spouse Betty Jones, the toy became a cultural phenomenon in a short period of time. The forces that assisted the success of the spring toy included the toy market after World War II, smart selling strategies, and the appeal of the toy's custom attributes.

These accidental inventions demonstrate that they are not always the outcome of focused strategies but can be developed from opportunities and the possibility to identify the relevance of the unknown. The achievement of these accidental breakthroughs also highlights the significance of supporting backgrounds that adopt wonder, along with the assistance of their coworkers and participant families. Social and innovative perspectives make it an important duty in shaping the influence of these inventions.

 

References

• Bud, R. (2011). Penicillin: Triumph and tragedy. Oxford University Press.
• Fleming, A. (1929). On the antibacterial action of cultures of a penicillium, with special reference to its use in the isolation of B. influenzae. British Journal of Experimental Pathology, 10(3), 226–236.
• Museum of Play. (n.d.). The history of the Slinky. Retrieved from https://www.museumofplay.org/toys/slinky/
• Spring, J. (2023, November 20). The history of the Slinky. James Spring. https://www.jamesspring.com/news/the-history-of-the-slinky/

discussion board 3 part 1 CS875

Hello professor and class, one key trend that I looked up on on the Horizon Report by EDUCAUSE is how important it is to have data privacy with cyber security. This topic discussed the use of Artificial Intelligence being integrated into cyber security software. It was interesting reading and watching videos on these trends because some of these trends are in correlation to my dissertation research project. I am filling a specific gap in research mentioning a area like thumb drive security and explainable Artificial Intelligence to mention how the technology is being used so that cyber security professionals will know how the software is protecting their sensitive information of flash drives. We are in a time period of great change. Higher education in information security and data privacy professionals need to find new inquiries based on what needs to be executed to maintain security for academic institutions and its students. 

With the technology of cyber-security being used in academic institutions these personnel have to deal with the force of education and learning because these students and professionals need to find new inquiries based on what needs to be executed to maintain security for academic institutions and its students. It is important that the education force is respected because all students and cyber security professionals need to learn AI-supported cyber security training while implementing information technology governance. Another force that affects the implementation of this technology is the growing threat of cyber crime and the law that is being broken. It is important that we all abide by government and international information and cyber laws to prevent financial loss and data breaches. 

Two forces that impact the trend and technology are the environment,and legislation that makes information technology governance laws. The environment is a force of concern because most resources and hardware equipment used for Artificial Intelligence data management are hazardous to the environment so it is imperative to use less of these hazardous materials or use environmental friendly alternatives to save data integrated with a machine learning system. Allowing information systems to be more "Green" or environmental friendly is crucial because the technology is expected to be used a lot and its important to recycle the environmentally hazardous equipment to prevent legacy systems from hurting the environment. Legal and ethical considerations need to be taken into considerations need to be taken into consideration when using machine learning with data protection because if there is unauthorized access or if the Artificial Intelligence technology gets into the wrong hands leading to a major data breach or cyber attacks. 

Laws on data governance may restrict the strength or possibilities of machine learning for cyber security because if not regulated the technology can be really damaging if in the wrong hands or in the reach of a criminal. I would appreciate it if I received feedback from the professor or classmates on this discussion board post. Please do not feel obligated to respond but your critique or feedback is very much appreciated.

Figure 1. Attached image Unit3DiscussionBoardCS875.png

This following image shows how Artificial Intelligence can be used to implement cyber security and data privacy for the government and academic institutions. This attached diagram explains the process of how machine learning and shows how it works in tandem with the existing information technology system.

References:

Robert, J., Reeves, J., McCormack, M., Arbinmo, N., & Muscanell, N., (2024, September 30). 2024 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report Cyber security and privacy edition. EDUCAUSE Library. https://library.educause.edu/resources/2024/9/2024-educause-horizon-report- cyber security-and-privacy-edition

Takyar, A. (2024, November 25). AI in Cyber security: Use cases, Implementation, Solution and development, Leeway Hertz, https://www.leewayhertz.com/ai-in-cybersecurity/

Steven Christopher Wong

Doctoral of Computer Science Student

Colorado Technical University 

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Discussion Board 3 part 2 CS875

 Hello Professor and class. Think tanks implement research and give advice and assistance in a broad scope of subjects such as social rules, military efforts, a nation's financial situation, culture, and innovative technologies. There are some key components to think tanks. Think tanks are groups that research and report on a wide scope of topics and problems in both government and private businesses or companies. Think tanks usually assist in political change by utilizing their study to affect public opinion. The results developed by the think tanks can implement a great duty in assisting government lawmakers in adjusting significant law agendas. A lot but not all think tanks can be categorized as being either liberal or conservative in their approach to influencing policy. While think tanks and organizations outside the government conduct a great depth of studying on a topic or problem, the two function completely differently. Non government groups are different from think tanks because they are nonprofit in a majority of situations and are composed of volunteers who have a common cause. No government think tank operates on local or international levels to affect social and humanitarian regulations, and help develop awareness for governments of citizen issues, and assist for public engagement in government and political outreach.

Three types of think tanks that I would like to discuss are ideological, specialized, and action oriented. Ideological think tanks display a specific political way of life or bias. For example, the viewpoints of a ideological think tanks are either conservative or liberal perspectives, ideological think tanks are developed to create solutions to social and political issues and to engage in persuading government lawmakers to use their ideas and proposed solutions. Specialized think tanks are often working in tandem with and assisted by non partisan universities to implement research and report on both a wide slope of topics, like international finances, and custom subjects like green peace, and public health issues. Action oriented think tanks are also known as think and do think tanks, because they are both actively engaged in operating the ideas developed through their study for a topic or issue. Their level of engagement may go past from financing humanitarian activist programs like world hunger in poorer nations to helping the development of facilities in areas of the world where they do no have access to public water resources like water fountains or wells. Thank you form reading my post. Your response or feedback to what I wrote will be greatly appreciated to enhance the learning experience 

References:

Longley, R. (2020, July 1). What is a think tank? Definition and examples. Thoughtco. https://www.thoughtco.com/top-think-tanks- Washington-dc-1038694

Steven Christopher Wong

Doctoral of Computer Science Student

Colorado Technical University

Steven Wong Week 5 Discussion Board 2 CS875

 Hello professor and class. While the idea of networked information technology is being used for generations, the estimation or prediction that companies will widely foster cloud-based information technology services for essential Information Technology operations is a classic instance of a forecast that could become a reality one day. This is not a lone prediction by one person or group, the basic trajectory was estimated by a lot of professionals in the technology profession beginning in the late 1990's and early 2000s. Businesses like Sales Force were the first to use the technology, but the bigger integration by companies like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure created the foundation for how real cloud computing can be as a technological solution.

Summary:

The forecast of estimation was that companies can move away from platforms and keep up their own data centers and Information Technology architecture instead of using a third party company to provide resources for computers, software applications, and the storage of information on the Internet "the cloud". This process implemented everything from essential architecture like servers, and networks to platforms for software creation and software as service applications like emails.

Forces influencing success:

1. Cost efficiency and scalability: one of the greatest motivators was the possibility for cost savings, Cloud computing provides a live pay as needed architecture, getting rid of large capital solutions necessary for developing and keeping up an in house model. In continuation, it permits companies to facilitate the scale of their resources to increase or decrease as supply and demand needs modifications, giving elasticity and omitting over supervisions. This issue went through communication with companies of any quantity of workers, but specifically new companies and smaller organizations that did not have the resources for big computing investments.
2. Using more bandwidth and making the cloud more reliable: The great and broadened availability of optimized Internet accessibility is important. Cloud computing is dependent on a strong and reliable network connection. As broadband architectures improved intermittently the ease of use and simplicity of relying on cloud-based platforms increased significantly. If this cloud architecture does not exist, there would be no cloud based technology revolution. Slow paced and inconsistent internet connection would have made cloud based software unable to be used by many companies and organizations.

While identifying a single "forecast" or "prediction" is not easy, as a large quantity of articles and documentation mentions the vast change of the cloud technology and the prediction science around the innovation. For subject matter and perspective, using the search engine with terms like "background of cloud computing" or "beginning forecasts of cloud technology" will reap a lot of resources for this subject at the Colorado Technical University library website. For instance, articles and documents from Garther and Forester frequently mentioned the increasing modifications in the beginning of cloud computing. As a drawback, a large quantity of articles are hidden beneath pay walls in today's online research environment. Despite that fact, a basic search engine inquiry "cloud computing history" will give a nice start to research goals. Your response to my post is very appreciated. Please do not feel obligated to respond to my post. I would like everyone's feedback so that I can have a well-rounded perspective of the topic being discussed this week.

References:

Armburst, M., Fox, A., Griffith, R., Joseph, A.D., Katz, R., Konowinski, A., & Zaihoria, M., (2010). A view of Cloud Computing. Communications of the ACM, 53(4), 50-58.

Buyya, R., Yeo, C.S., Venugopal, S., Broberg, J., & Bandicoot, I., (2009). Cloud Computing and Emerging IT Platforms: Vision, hype, and reality of delivering computing OS the 5th Uility. Future Generation Computer Systems 25(6), 599-616.

Gather(2024). Hyper Cycle of Emerging Technologies

Miller, M.(2008). Cloud Computing: Web-based applications that change the way you want and collaborate online. Que Publishing.

-Steven Christopher Wong

Doctoral of Computer Science Student

Colorado Techinical University