Steven Wong Week 5 Discussion Board 1 CS875

 Hello professor and class. implementing through and planning the uncertain environment of the days ahead is a critical issue for companies throughout the government and private sectors. Two essential methods, traditional forecasting and scenario planning. provide specific approaches for dealing with this problem. While both approaches focus on continuing ideas about making decisions and planning projects, they are very different in there way of dealing with uncertainty, the management and end results. Comprehending what is different in these approaches is important for selecting the necessary decision for a particular circumstance.

Traditional forecasting operates on the objective that future days can be estimated, to a reasonable measure, by analyzing changes in the past and present. It uses and needs historical information, statistical architectures, and configuration patterns to show future results. This method is specifically effective for short to medium time interval strategies, budgeting finances, and decisions regarding implementation where a measure of certainty is predicted. For instance, a retail company like Walmart might use information from historic sales to predict user supply and demand for a specific item in the next chapter of the year. The usefulness of traditional forecasting is in the possibility to give exact, quantifiable estimations, permitting for enhanced and well operated in resource utilization. However, its need to rely on historical trends makes it a weak spot to unknown sales disruptions and non-linear modifications. It faces challenges in dealing with shifts in unknown changes in the market, which could result in inefficient estimations and unworkable plans.

Scenario planning is different in that it ensures uncertainty as a basic attribute of the days to come. This type of planning does not predict a single outcome, but concentrates on investigating a wide range of outcomes. This is attained by developing a variety of circumstances or situations on a variety of combinations of primary objectives and uncertainties. These situations are not predicting the future, but are narrating the investigation of a variety of possible results the future may bring. In scenario planning, the days to come or the future is not a linear extension of historic data and that uncertainty can greatly change the environment. For instance, a computer company could create scenarios investigating a variety of trajectories of technological innovations, policy modifications, and competition from other companies to report its investigation and development plan.

Hello professor and class. I made this post after watching the videos in the references section of this week's case and developing a understanding of traditional and scenario planning. Your feedback is wanted and appreciated. Please do not feel obligated to respond to my feedback.

References:

Oglivy, J.A.(2002). Creating better futures: Scenario thinking for an ever changing world. Oxford University Press.

Schwartz, P. (1991). The area of long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Currency Double day.

Van de Heijden, K. (2002). Scenario: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons.

Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 73-89.

Wack, P. (1985b). Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139-150.

-Steven Christopher Wong

Doctoral of Computer Science Student

Colorado Technical University